Why Hope Isn’t a Strategy: Real Estate Exit Plans That Actually Work
By Mark Kenney | Think Multifamily
Contrary to what many people say, in multifamily investing, you don't make money when you buy.
You only realize the big profits when you refinance or sell.
It’s no different than buying or selling a stock.
People often say, “I made money in the stock market today,” or “I lost money.”
So I ask, “Did you sell?”
And when they say “No,” the truth is simple—they didn’t actually make or lose anything.
It’s all just paper… until there’s a transaction.
If your exit plan relies on hope rather than strategy, you're putting the entire investment at risk.
Real Story
We watched operators who planned to sell their properties in 2-3 years, assuming endless rent growth and cap rate compression.
Instead, the market shifted.
Buyers became more conservative.
Interest rates rose.
Cap rates expanded.
Property values dropped.
Suddenly, those "expected" profits evaporated, and some operators had no choice but to sell at a loss — or worse, hand the keys back to the lender.
Key Lesson
You must build multiple, viable exit strategies — not just one.
Smart operators:
Plan for longer hold periods.
Stress-test against higher cap rates at sale.
Create cash flow strategies that don't rely solely on a quick exit.
Always have a Plan B (and C).
Flexibility isn't optional. It's a survival skill.
Practical Guidance
✅ Underwrite with conservative exit assumptions
✅ Model refinance, sale, and long-term hold scenarios.
✅ Structure debt with flexibility, not rigid expiration dates.
✅ Educate investors early about multiple possible outcomes.
Bottom Line
If your deal only works in a perfect world, it's not a strategy — it’s a gamble.
Operators who build flexible exit plans will be the ones still standing when the market shifts again.
🛑 Hope Isn’t a Strategy — But a Smart Exit Plan Is.
If you’re facing tough decisions or want to build flexible strategies that actually work in this market, don’t go it alone.
🎯 Book a private consulting session with Mark and get real-time feedback from someone who’s been through the fire — and made it out stronger.
👉 thinkmultifamily.com/consulting
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